More Arthur Meighen Than Brian Mulroney? Pierre Poilievre Might Soon Confront The Reform Act

Posted on 2025/04/30 by J.W.J. Bowden

Election of 2025 

On 28 April 2025, we returned yet another minority parliament in the 45th federal general election. Elections Canada’s preliminary results show that this general election brought out the highest voterturnout since 1993, at 68.7% compared to 69.6% thirty-two years ago. The fervent proponents of proportional representation should take heart that the Bloc Quebecois won 6.3% of the vote and 6.4% of the seats and that the Conservatives won 41.3% of the votes and 42.0% of the seats, though they will lament that the New Democrats suffered from an inefficient vote, winning 6.3% of the popular vote but only 2.0% of the seats, and will curse that the Liberals won 49.3% of the seats from 43.7% of the popular vote.

But the Age of Minority Parliaments continues despite the enormous turnout and engagement. While the Conservatives increased their share of the popular vote from 33.74% in 2021 to 41.3% in 2025, the Liberals increased theirs from 33.62% to 43.7% and came within only 3 seats of winning a bare majority (or 4 counting a Liberal Speaker), returning 169 MPs opposite 144 Conservatives, 22 Blocists, 7 New Democrats, and 1 Green.[1] Both Jagmeet Singh, the outgoing leader of the New Democratic Party, and Pierre Poilievre, leader of the Conservative Party, lost their own seats. Not only did Mark Carney immediately reverse two years of precipitous decline almost lead the Liberals to an outright majority, but the Liberals will soon face an official opposition without its leader, a demoralised rump of seven New Democrats who have lost their status as an official party in the House of Commons (which, incidentally, means that they need not hold any votes on whether to apply the Reform Act to themselves), a diminished Bloc Quebecois, and the perennial but septuagenarian Elizabeth May withering on the vine of the Green Party. If Poilievre had retained his own seat in Carleton, the Conservatives would almost certainly keep him as leader. But his humiliating defeat and pending absence from the new House of Commons might make some Conservative MPs look elsewhere. The Reform Act might give them the instrument to oust yet another leader. 

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Posted in Electing & Ousting Party Leaders, Party Discipline | 1 Comment

The Upcoming Transfer of Power Between Justin Trudeau and Mark Carney

Posted on 2025/03/10 by J.W.J. Bowden

The Ministry Depends on the Prime Minister

The Governor General’s first constitutional duty is to appoint a Prime Minister and ensure the continuity of government. The Governor General usually appoints the leader of the political party which has either an outright majority or a plurality of MPs in the House of Commons, or barring that, the leader who can command a majority of the House of Commons at the time (like Alexander Mackenzie in November 1873), and only appoints a Prime Minister when the incumbent resigns, dies, or is dismissed from office. The tenure of the Prime Minister determines the tenure of the ministry as a whole; therefore, the Prime Minister’s resignation or death automatically forces the resignation of the entire ministry at once.[1] A single ministry can therefore span multiple parliaments, and a single parliament could include multiple ministries.[2] For instance, Stephen Harper’s 28th Ministry remained in office continuously from 6 February 2006 to 4 November 2015 and spanned the 39th, 40th, and 41st Parliaments elected in 2006, 2008, and 2011, respectively.[3] Alternatively, a single parliament might overlap with multiple ministries. The 2nd Parliament elected from July to October 1872, for instance, included two ministries because Sir John A. Macdonald resigned over the Pacific Scandal and Governor General Lord Dufferin appointed Alexander Mackenzie as the next Prime Minister in November 1873.[4] More recently, the 37th Parliament elected in 2000 saw an intra-party transition of power between the 26th and 27th Ministries of Chretien and Martin in December 2003.[5]

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Posted in Appointment of PM, Crown (Powers and Office), Formation of Governments, Succession (Prime Minister) | Leave a comment

Doug Ford Wins Snap Election on an Extremely Unequal Electoral Map

Posted on 2025/03/01 by J.W.J. Bowden

The 15th Snap Election Notwithstanding a Fixed-Date Elections Law

Ontarians last went to the polls during the pandemic on 2 June 2022 in accordance with section 9 of the Election Act:

General elections at four-year intervals

Powers of Lieutenant Governor

9 (1) Nothing in this section affects the powers of the Lieutenant Governor, including the power to dissolve the Legislature, by proclamation in Her Majesty’s name, when the Lieutenant Governor sees fit.  2005, c. 35, s. 1 (3).

First Thursday in June

(2)  Subject to the powers of the Lieutenant Governor referred to in subsection (1), general elections shall be held on the first Thursday in June in the fourth calendar year following polling day in the most recent general election. 2016, c. 33, s. 7.[1]

They would have gone again on 4 June 2026, but Doug Ford, Premier of Ontario, decided otherwise. He made this speculation official on 24 January 2025 at a press conference in Brampton, and he formally requested that Lieutenant Governor Edith Dumont dissolve the 43rd Legislature on 28 January. However, Her Honour could not issue the writs of election until 29 January because “a writ for an election shall be dated on a Wednesday” under section 9.1(3) of the Election Act[2] for an election on 27 February 2025, the “fifth Thursday after the date of the writ.”[3] The writ period in Ontario therefore lasts 29 days.

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Nova Scotia Poised to Repeal Its Fixed-Date Elections Law

Posted on 2025/02/19 by J.W.J. Bowden

 

Tim Houston, Premier of Nova Scotia and leader of the Progressive Conservative Party, decided on 27 October 2024 to advise the Lieutenant Governor to dissolve the legislature for a snap election 7 months early instead of allowing the general election to take place on 15 July 2025 based on the legislation that he himself had introduced in 2021. His gambit paid off. Houston’s Progressive Conservatives won 43 out of 55 seats in the election held on 26 November 2024 on 52.49% of the popular vote, compared to 31 seats on 38.55% of the vote on 17 August 2021.

In my previous post on this subject, I predicted that Houston would introduce legislation to change the schedule of fixed-date elections from the ridiculous Third Tuesday in July every four years as of 2025 to a date every fourth early June, like in Ontario. But Houston has exceeded my expectations and instead tabled a bill on 18 February 2025 to repeal Nova Scotia’s fixed-date elections law outright! Nova Scotia became the last province or territory to enact one of these futile and redundant laws on 5 November 2021, and it now seems poised to become the first province to repeal its fixed-date elections as well.

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Trump’s Tariffs Will Make America Expensive Again

Posted on 2025/02/03 by J.W.J. Bowden

Trump admires William McKinley and his high tariffs

Protectionism Is Cool Again

Donald Trump promised to cry havoc in November 2024 as President-elect, and he hath now as President let loose the dogs of tradewar. Trump had denounced the tradedeficit between Canada and the United States, which have occurred under the trade agreement between Canada, the United States, and Mexico that he negotiated during his first non-consecutive term.[1] But the Doctrine of Trumpian Infallibility dictates that he somehow bears no responsibility for the trade agreement that he initiated and secured eight years ago and which he now finds bad.

NAFTA was always NAFTA in English, ALÉNA en français, and TLCAN en español, but this newer trade agreement that Trump forced in his first term reflects the post-truth era of caprice and stupidity in which we live, because we cannot agree on something as basic as the name of this trilateral agreement. Canada in English calls it “The Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA)”, while in Washington the agreement identifies itself as “The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement.” The trilateral international Secretariat charged with administering the treaty between the three countries also gives it different names in English, French, and Spanish. In English, “The Agreement” identifies as both the “Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) / United States-Mexica-Canada Agreement (USMCA).” The Mexicans call it El Tratado entre México, Estados Unidos y Canadá (T-MEC), simply “The Treaty between Mexico, the United States, and Canada.” And Canada also calls it in French by Accord Canada – États-Unis – Mexique – a direct translation of the Canadian English name shorn of the preposition which elegantly marks the Spanish, which surprises me given the prevailing pedantry that French-speakers usually show toward their language.

On 1 February 2025, Trump issued an executive order under Article II of the US Constitution and delegated legislation pursuant to the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the National Emergencies Act, the Trade Act, and the United States Code to impose a tariff of 25% on all Canadian goods and products except energy, which he shall merely tariff at a rate of 10%, as of 4 February.

Sec. 2. (a) All articles that are products of Canada as defined by the Federal Register notice described in subsection (e) of this section (Federal Register notice), and except for those products described in subsection (b) of this section, shall be, consistent with law, subject to an additional 25 percent ad valorem rate of duty. Such rate of duty shall apply with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern time on February 4, 2025 […]

(b) With respect to energy or energy resources, as defined in section 8 of Executive Order 14156 of January 20, 2025 (Declaring a National Energy Emergency), and as otherwise included in the Federal Register notice, such articles that are products of Canada as defined by the Federal Register notice shall be, consistent with law, subject to an additional 10 percent ad valorem rate of duty. Such rate of duty shall apply with respect to goods entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern time on February 4, 2025 […].[2]

Most ominously still, Trump issued an open declaration of tradewar and warned Canada not to retaliate, or else he might escalate the tariffs yet further:

(d) Should Canada retaliate against the United States in response to this action through import duties on United States exports to Canada or similar measures, the President may increase or expand in scope the duties imposed under this order to ensure the efficacy of this action.[3]

This executive order only applies to Canada, which presumably means that Trump will soon issue additional executive orders imposing tariffs on Mexico separately. CUSMA – I’ll use the Canadian variant of the name here, I suppose, purely because it makes a pronounceable acronym – came into effect in December 2019, shortly before the pandemic.[4] Trump has, in effect, abrogated that Treaty unilaterally, killed free trade in North America, and undone decades of good will.

And yet this is not the first time that the United States has abruptly cancelled free trade and re-imposed protectionist tariffs on Canada either. In some ways, Trump has brought the United States back to its protectionist norm.

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Posted in History of British North America | Leave a comment