Tim Houston’s Snap Election in Nova Scotia

Posted on 2024/11/12 by J.W.J. Bowden

Houston Breached the Last Redoubt

Nova Scotia long resisted the trend of fixed-date elections in Canada and stood for years as the last redoubt of the ten provinces to rely solely on section 4(1) of the Constitution Act, 1982, which sets the maximum life of a legislative assembly at five years from the date fixed for the return of writs of the previous general election. And no province agonised over fixed-date elections quite like Nova Scotia either. The House of Assembly considered several private members’ bills to implement fixed-date elections from 2007 to 2013; they all failed because they never gained the support of the government. All fixed-date election laws in Canada started out life as government bills. Stephen McNeil, Liberal Premier from October 2013 to February 2021, even went so far as to rule out imposing a fixed-date election law in Nova Scotia altogether on 8 April 2015 only two days after Wade MacLaughlan, at the time the new Liberal Premier of Prince Edward Island, ignored his province’s electoral schedule. McNeil also alluded to all the ad hockery that Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Prince Edward Island had gone through to avoid the possibility that their provincial general elections would overlap with the federal general election in October 2015 as evidence that “fixed dates haven’t been working.”[1] All that changed on the Fifth of November 2021.

Houston’s Fixed-Date Elections Law from 2021

Tim Houston led his Progressive Conservatives to a legislative majority and 31 out of 55 seats on 17 August 2021.[2] Houston then introduced a fixed-date elections bill before the House of Assembly himself on 13 October 2021.[3] Nova Scotia’s fixed-date election law now appears as section 29A of its Elections Act:

Fixed election date

29A (1) Nothing in this Section affects the powers of the Lieutenant Governor, including the power to dissolve the House of Assembly at the discretion of the Lieutenant Governor.

(2) Subject to subsections (3) and (4), and the powers of the Lieutenant Governor referred to in subsection (1), notwithstanding any other enactment, each general election must be held on the third Tuesday in July, in the fourth calendar year following election day for the most recent general election.

(3) Where the Chief Electoral Officer is of the opinion that a Tuesday that would otherwise be election day is not suitable for that purpose, including by reason of it being in conflict with a day of cultural or religious significance or a federal or municipal election, the Chief Electoral Officer shall choose another day in accordance with subsection (4) and recommend to the Governor in Council that election day be that other day, and the Governor in Council may make an order to that effect.

(4) For the purpose of subsection (3), the Chief Electoral Officer may, notwithstanding clause 29(b), choose as an alternative ordinary election day one of the seven days following the Tuesday that would otherwise be election day.

(5) In the case of a general election under subsection (2), an order may not be made under subsection (3) within seventy days preceding the Tuesday that would otherwise be election day.[4]

Every other fixed-date election law in Canada schedules general elections in either the spring or fall, but Houston decided that his would schedule Nova Scotia’s general elections the third Tuesday of every fourth July, starting 15 July 2025.

Houston introduced the bill at Second Reading in October 2021 and spoke as if prime ministers and premiers had not obtained twelve snap elections between August 2008 and August 2021 notwithstanding fixed-date election laws and as if fixed-date election laws only existed as an ideal without messy practical problems. He also ignored that his predecessor Stephen McNeil had abandoned fixed-date elections specifically because Prentice and MacLaughlan both brazenly secured early dissolutions of their respective majority parliaments in two days in April 2015. Instead, Houston spoke as if he were Gordon Campbell introducing the first fixed-date election bill in British Columbia in 2001. He repeatedly emphasised the “certainty” that a fixed-date election law would bring Nova Scotia. Better still, the legislation would not only “bring predictability” but also “level the playing field” and “save money.”[5] He also declared:

“Overriding all of that, what legislating a fixed election date will do is take away any perceived advantage by the government, that the government has in controlling the timing of the next election. We all know that governments sometimes pick a date that they think benefits them. Snap election, high in the polls, whatever the case may be, they know something bad is coming, whatever the case may be.”[6]

Surely after making such a bold declaration, Houston himself would never visit the Lieutenant Governor and secure a snap election before June 2025 (counting the writ) when his Progressive Conservatives rode high in the polls and could easily secure re-election at a time beneficial to them.

Houston’s Snap Election

Naturally therefore, on 27 October 2024, Premier Houston decided to ignore the date of the next scheduled provincial general election of 15 July 2025 contained in the bill that he himself introduced only three years earlier so that Nova Scotians would go to the polls on 26 November 2024 instead.[7] Houston issued a short news release shorn of any soaring rhetoric or reference to the fixed-date election law that Houston introduced as a way of taking away from a government “the timing of the next election” at “a date that they think benefits them.” It reads as if Houston simply carried out a routine and necessary action and as if he had not introduced a fixed schedule for general elections three years ago:

Nova Scotians will be going to the polls for a general election on Tuesday, November 26.

Premier Tim Houston met with Lt-Gov. Arthur J. Leblanc today, October 27, to ask that he dissolve the General Assembly and call a general election.

“We encourage all Nova Scotians to get out and vote,” said Premier Houston. “This is your chance to build the future of our province.”

By law, the campaign must be a minimum of 30 days, and the election held on a Tuesday.[8]

Houston issued a lengthier rationale on the social media platform formerly known as Twitter:

Nova Scotians will have the opportunity to go to the polls and elect a new government on November 26. There are two urgent reasons why we are asking Nova Scotians to entrust us with government once again.

First: People are facing financial pressures. It will take long-term vision, policy changes and investments to support them through the affordability challenges and improve Nova Scotia for everyone. Our Nova Scotia PC government has a plan that will make it happen. We are ready to make significant new investments in areas like housing and affordability, but before we enact that plan, Nova Scotians should have their say.

Second: With the instability in Ottawa and a federal election coming soon – Nova Scotia needs a government with a strong mandate to stand up for our province. Our Province risks becoming a political football in a federal election that could be held simultaneously with the current scheduled fixed election date. That is not in the province’s best interest.

It is clear to me that – facing a political crisis and potential electoral defeat – Prime Minister Trudeau has decided to try to save seats in Ontario and Quebec at the expense of places like Nova Scotia.

We have more work to do, and with the support of Nova Scotians, we will keep building up Nova Scotia.

I look forward to crisscrossing the province and sharing our plan for:

✅ Lower Taxes.

✅ More Doctors.

✅ Higher Wages.

In this election, I ask for your support to make it happen.[9]

None of this makes much sense. First of all, the Trudeau government could still fall in vote of want of confidence in the House of Commons at any time, which means that a federal election could still end up over-lapping with Nova Scotia’s writ and polling day of 26 November 2024. But if the Trudeau government survives until the House of Commons would under its Standing Orders rise for the summer in June 2025 – and presuming the Prime Minister obtains neither a prorogation nor dissolution of parliament in the meantime – then the next federal election would surely not happen in June and July 2025 and would therefore not have overlapped with Nova Scotia’s general election originally scheduled for 15 July 2025. This, in turn, invalidates Houston’s concern that federal and Nova Scotian general elections “could be held simultaneously.” Second, Houston’s claim that “Trudeau has decided to try to save seats in Ontario and Quebec at the expense of places like Nova Scotia” bears no resemblance whatever to the reality of Canadian politics, neither in general over time nor in particular with respect to Nova Scotia in 2024. Far from turning Nova Scotia “into a political football,” the Trudeau government has overtly favoured the four Atlantic Provinces – including Nova Scotia – by “exempting home heating oil from the carbon tax for three years” in October 2023.[10] Nova Scotia disproportionately benefits from this policy because a large proportion of its inhabitants rely on heating oil in lieu of natural gas. This decision undermined the coherence of the carbon tax price on carbon in favour of Nova Scotia and at the expense of Ontario and Quebec, as well as the West. Houston has read this all upside down and backwards in a bizarre hall of mirrors in an attempt to assume the mantle of his 19th-century predecessor Joseph Howe and seek “Better Terms” from Ottawa on other policy issues like immigration.

Houston’s decision did not surprise political observers in Nova Scotia. CBC News reported about one week before that a snap election seemed likely.[11] And as the House of Assembly adjourned its fall sitting on 20 September 2024, some MHAs had come to believe that the Premier would obtain an early dissolution well before the scheduled election in July 2025 and therefore prevent the current legislature from meeting for the spring sitting required under the House of Assembly Act.[12] Some MHAs therefore started giving farewell addresses as early as 19 September 2024. Keith Irving, Liberal MHA and a cabinet minister under the previous Liberal government, told his colleagues: “It’s an honour to address the House this evening. I learned a few hours ago that we’re doing Address in Reply and that there might be an opportunity to say a few words. Not knowing when the next election is, this may be my last opportunity.”[13] The following day, Derek Mombourquette, Liberal MHA for Sydney—Membertou and also a minister under the previous Liberal government, bade farewell to “some members in here who have announced that they will not seek re-election.”[14] Incidentally, Mombourquette’s statement and some recent coverage in New Brunswick taught me “re-offering” as a Maritime way of saying “running for re-election.” The House of Assembly adjourned its fall sitting on 20 September 2024.

Conclusion: The Trends from 14 Snap Elections Notwithstanding Fixed-Date Election Laws

Houston has opted for the 14th snap election notwithstanding a fixed-date election law since 2008; furthermore, he has distinguished himself more precisely as the 4th Premier or Prime Minister to obtain a snap election and break with the schedule set out in a law that his or her government introduced. Houston’s snap election will happen 231 days earlier than the scheduled election would have. By comparison, the 14 snap elections requested and obtained by premiers notwithstanding fixed-date election laws have happened on average 385 days earlier – just one one year – than the scheduled elections would have. And of the 13 completed snap elections so far (not counting Houston’s), 10 have sustained an incumbent government, 7 with majorities and 3 with pluralities. The latest poll that Abacus published on 3 November 2024 suggests that Houston’s gambit will pay off and that his will make that figure 11 of 14.[15] That said, whether Houston wins or loses this general election, the outcome will have little to nothing to do with his decision to ignore the schedule in his own fixed-date elections law. But if he wins a second election, I suspect that Houston will introduce a bill to change the schedule of the elections from July the late spring (perhaps the first week of June like in Ontario) so that the next legislature would not last closer to four and a half years. Otherwise, Nova Scotia will face the same problem as Prince Edward Island and consistently break with its scheduled elections from now on.

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Notes

[1] CBC News, “Nova Scotia Government Balks at Fixed Election Date,” 8 April 2015.

[2] Elections Nova Scotia, “August 17, 2021 Nova Scotia Provincial General Election Results,” 2021.

[3] Tim Houston, “Introduction of Bills: No. 1, Elections Act (amended),” in Hansard: Debates and Proceedings, 64th Assembly, 1st session, 21-03, Wednesday, 13 October 2021, page 33.

[4] Elections Act (Nova Scotia), chapter 5 of the acts of 2011, s.29.

[5] Tim Houston, “Public Bills for Second Reading: No. 1, Elections Act (amended),” in Hansard: Debates and Proceedings, 64th Assembly, 1st Assembly, 21-04, Thursday, 14 October 2021, page 145.

[6] Houston, “Second Reading,” 146.

[7] Jean Laroche, “Nova Scotians Heading to the Polls Nov. 26 After Early Election Call,” CBC News, 27 October 2024.

[8] Nova Scotia. Office of the Premier, “General Election Called for Nova Scotians,” 27 October 2024.

[9] Tim Houston, @TimHoustonMS, Tweet, 27 October 2024.

[10] Darren Major, “Ottawa Exempting Home Heating Oil from Carbon Tax for 3 years, Trudeau Says,” CBC News, 26 October 2023.

[11] CBC News, “Why It Feels Like a Snap Election Is Around the Corner in Nova Scotia,” 22 October 2024.

[12] House of Assembly Act, R.S.N.S., 1992 Supplement, Chapter 1, at section 8(2).

[13] Keith Irving (Liberal MHA for King’s South), “Address in Reply,” House of Assembly of Nova Scotia, Debates and Proceedings, 24-121, Thursday, 19 September 2024, at pages 9398-9404; Nova Scotia, House of Assembly, “Keith, Richard Irving,” in Biographical Directory of MLAs from 1984 to the Present, accessed 4 November 2024.

[14] Derek Mombourquette (Liberal MHA for Sydney—Membertou), “Statements by Members,” House of Assembly of Nova Scotia, Debates and Proceedings, 24-122, Friday, 20 September 2024, at page 9437; Nova Scotia, House of Assembly, “Mombourquette, Derek Curtis,” in Biographical Directory of MLAs from 1984 to the Present, accessed 4 November 2024.

[15] Luke Ettinger, “Poll Shows N.S. Progressive Conservatives in Strong Position to Be Re-Elected,” CBC News, 3 November 2024.

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About J.W.J. Bowden

My area of academic expertise lies in Canadian political institutions, especially the Crown, political executive, and conventions of Responsible Government; since 2011, I have made a valuable contribution to the scholarship by having been published and cited extensively. I’m also a contributing editor to the Dorchester Review and a member of the editorial board of the Journal of Parliamentary and Political Law.
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