British Columbia became the first province to adopt fixed-date election laws in 2001, and the law first took effect for the province’s general election of 2005. Newfoundland and Labrador followed suit and enacted Canada’s second fixed-date election law in 2004, which first applied to the general election in 2007. Some Canadian scholars hailed this initial wave of provincial fixed-date election laws in the mid- to late-2000s as a panacea that would rebalance the “democratic deficit” – a fashionable phrase fifteen to twenty years ago – vanquish political cynicism, and increase voter turnout. Henry Milner speculated fervently in 2005 that fixed-date elections would complement efforts to increase voter turnout, though without necessarily doing so directly themselves.
Beyond this, fixed election dates could enhance the effectiveness of a variety of measures designed to actively boost voter turnout.[1] […] This does not mean that moving toward fixed voting dates will in itself reverse Canada’s low and declining voter turnout; but it is a necessary component of a systematic effort to address this pressing issue.[2]
Now that we have run this experiment for ten to almost twenty years in most jurisdictions, we can examine the statistical trends: the statistics do not bear out this hypothesis. Voter turnout has either continued to decline or has levelled out since the advent of fixed-date election laws in Canada and in all provinces, except for in Alberta, where its transition toward a two-party system with increased competition and choice in elections since 2012 probably explains higher turnout.
In the following charts, I noted the general elections which have taken place since the fixed-date elections law first applied, though these lists include both scheduled and snap general elections. I have drawn the data from the official reports of Chief Electoral Officers or from the website of the relevant elections agency.
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