7. The Seventh “Modified Population Estimates” Formula (2022-Present)


Spreadsheets

  • A
  • B
  • C

This spreadsheet is called “1. MPs under the 6th & 7th Formulas, 2010s-2020s.” Sheet 1 copies over the operative calculation in the 2010s and the number of MPs per province under the Representation Order, 2013. Sheet 2 contains a separate calculation for the new federal electoral quotient in the 2020s, which I later decided to integrate directly into the remaining worksheets.

Sheet 6: ROs, 2023

Rule 2

All the basic calculations in Sheet 7 (ROs, 2023) remain the same relative to those in Sheet 4 (MPs in 2021 (Abandoned)). However, I entered new figures in Column K – which now says “MPs in 2020” instead of “MPs in 1986” – to reflect that Parliament amended the Grandfather Clause and its point of reference from the number of MPs per province under the Representation Order, 1974 to those under the Representation Order, 2013. This gave Quebec 78 MPs and rendered the calculations under Rules 3 and 4 redundant.

Counterfactuals Based on the Seventh Formula, 2020s

Sheet 7: Pure Representation by Population

Sheet 7 (2020s, Pure Rep by Pop) uses the baseline of Sheet 6 but only includes Rule 1 in calculating the number of MPs per province. Eliminating the other rules would grant provinces MPs based purely on representation by population under the population estimates for 1 July 2021 and the federal electoral quotient of the 2020s, reducing the House of Commons from 340 to 318 provincial MPs.

Sheet 8: What Parliament Can Do Alone

Sheet 8 (2020s with 51A Only) shows what the Seventh Formula if Parliament eliminated the distortions from pure representation by population that it alone can do under the Section 44 Amending Procedure, which is to say, repealing the Grandfather Clause and Representation Rule. The calculations in this sheet 8 preserve only Rule 1 and the half of Rule 2 covering the Senatorial Clause. This would have reduced the House of Commons in the 2020s from 340 provincial MPs to 325.